Dick Hubert’s Worldview
The Ukraine War exposes U.S. and NATO shortcomings; China sees our naval weakness
July 14, 2023 at 3:00 p.m.
Our current and future security as a nation is being decided on battlefields and seas far from home.
It’s sobering to take in what the experts know and what the rest of us probably don’t but should.
I have written in previous columns that Ukrainians are fighting a war not just for their survival as an independent and democratic country, but ours as well.
Last week’s issue of the London, England based Economist, which featured an entire section on the Ukrainian battlefield lessons the United States, NATO, Ukraine, and even Russia and China are learning, is worth studying carefully—even if you have to take a visit to a public library to get a copy.
I did not realize the extent to which the United States and its allies are learning to totally rewrite the way we will be fighting wars, and that Ukraine is letting us test new weapons, existing weapons systems and find out which work, which don’t, and what that means for our defense as a nation—and not just Ukraine’s.
This document was put together by The Economist’s brilliant Defence Editor Shashank Joshi. These are some of his key findings.
Artillery has been the Ukraine war’s essential weapon. But technology is critical. Because if the rounds are not accurate, if the artillery is not damaging the enemy, then there is battlefield failure. Drones are at the heart of precision fire. To quote Joshi: “Much kit (equipment) Ukraine has received is vintage, such as American howitzers or Soviet missile launchers designed before the Cuban missile crisis, or is stripped of sensitive components. Ukraine is pioneering “the ability to turn it from a dumb piece of cold-war metal into something that’s genuinely networked and part of this algorithmic warfare,” says a foreign adviser in Kyiv. “It is maddening,” noted James Heappey, a junior British defence minister, that “I am providing to the Ukrainians…capability that we’re still years away from getting in the British armed forces.”
Say what you will about Elon Musk, his Starlink satellite system is what keeps Ukraine alive as a country. If you only think Tesla, SpaceX, Neuralink or Twitter when you think of Musk, think again. Starlink is more effective than satellites circling the earth. Apparently, the Russians can jam a lot of the technology the West is sharing with Ukraine, but, again quoting Joshi: “Russia has failed to knock out the Starlink terminals that give Ukraine’s army near-universal internet access via communication satellites. One reason is that a Starlink beam is extremely narrow—you have to get within 100-200 metres to spot it…Russian EW (Electronic Warfare) vehicles also seem incapable of jamming Starlink radio frequencies or the … tactical radios that America has supplied to Ukraine.”
American generals have not understood the logistics of fighting Russia in Ukraine. Again Joshi: “Steven Anderson, a retired American general who oversaw logistics in Iraq, says the “operational readiness rate” for equipment there was 95%. Anything below 90% would get a commander pulled up in front of bosses. In Ukraine anecdotal data suggests it is only around 50%, he says. “Half of what we give them is broken at any given time and they’re struggling mightily.” For much of the war, Ukraine’s exhausted artillery pieces have been sent to eastern Europe to fix. Since the autumn, more can be repaired in Kryvyi Rih, an industrial city near the southern front. But its capacity is limited. Mr. Anderson complains that less than 4% of American aid has been allocated to support and maintenance.”
How unprepared has the U.S. found itself thanks to what’s happening in Ukraine? “America has grown used to sustaining wars thousands of miles away with scant threats to ships, planes and trucks carrying supplies to ports, airfields and depots. Those days are over. ‘Decades of wargaming, analysis, and empirical evidence suggest that attacking [American] logistical dependencies…is the most effective way of fighting the United States,’ concludes Chris Dougherty, a former Pentagon planner, in a paper. Chinese attacks on logistics have ‘paralysed’ American forces in war games, he says.”
Even Russia is learning from the Ukrainian war. “A paper by Jack Watling and Nick Reynolds ... shows how its tactics have improved. The authors have published detailed studies of the war that are read avidly by the West’s armed forces and defence ministries. Their report draws on interviews with Ukraine’s general staff and its brigades. Consider infantry tactics. Russia now sends small packets of ‘disposable’ infantry, a handful of men at a time, often under the influence of amphetamines, to ‘skirmish…until killed’, exposing Ukrainian positions. Larger groups of better-trained assault infantry then move in, backed by armour, mortars and artillery. If a position is taken, it is fortified within 12 hours. ‘The…speed with which Russian infantry dig, and the scale at which they improve their fighting positions, is noteworthy,”’ say Mr. Watling and Mr. Reynolds. Russian engineers have built fortifications and bridges and laid minefields.”
And finally: “Technology can make war more efficient. But if both sides have the technology, even a highly efficient war is likely to involve enormous costs in blood, metal and treasure. Armies without the size and depth to absorb losses and remain viable on the battlefield may find that no amount of digital wizardry or tactical nous can save them.”
That’s a brutally grim assessment. It shows why Putin still believes he can win in Ukraine by bleeding Ukraine dry. And that’s why the Ukrainian counteroffensive, if and when it really starts in earnest, will be a crucial moment for Ukraine and the West.
One final note. If you’re a CBS NEWS “60 Minutes” follower, as I am, you may have seen for the second time over the July 4 weekend their assessment of America’s naval strength vis a vis China in the Pacific. It’s clear that we cannot afford a war with China. Their navy is three times ours already, and their naval missiles may well blow our 50-year-old aircraft carriers out of the water. Our inability to build ships of all sizes quickly without massive technical problems and unacceptable cost overruns is a national disgrace. World War II’s “Arsenal of Democracy” is a shadow of its former self. And that’s on the backs of both Democratic and Republican administrations. Our only salvation, at least it’s my take from the “60 Minutes” report, is our submarine fleet in Asian waters, which is hard to detect and carries nuclear missiles. China has intercontinental nuclear missiles as well. Is MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction) going to save the day?
Sorry to be so negative, but taking a sober assessment of where we are, and how to get to where we should be in rebuilding our Navy, is, I hope, a bipartisan imperative.
The Tommy Tubervilles in America
need to be shamed out of office
“Coach” Tommy Tuberville, Alabama’s embarrassment of a Senator, is still holding up all those military field officer appointments because he’s opposed to the Defense Department giving its women members the ability to go to abortion friendly states if they need that medical help.
Tuberville most recently gained national attention when, after voting against President Biden’s infrastructure bill, proudly claimed credit for Alabama’s getting $1.4 billion from that legislation to improve broadband access.
As the Huffington Post reported: “Tuberville spokesperson Steven Stafford dismissed the idea that there’s anything hypocritical about the senator hailing the benefits of legislation he opposed.”
““Coach voted against the infrastructure bill because it wasted Alabamians’ tax dollars,” he said of Tuberville, a former college football coach. “It spent too much to get too little in return for Alabama. But now that it is the law of the land, the people of Alabama deserve their fair share.”
I’m still awaiting our NYS Senators Schumer and Gillibrand calling for the Space Command HQ to be in Colorado Springs, Colo., and not Huntsville, Ala.
Dick Hubert, a retired television news producer-writer-reporter living in Rye Brook, has been honored with the Peabody Award, the DuPont Columbia Award and the Robert F. Kennedy Memorial Journalism Award.
Editor’s Note: This column, written by Dick Hubert, represents his opinion and not that of this newspaper.
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